Record
A record of my predictions for the future and their status.
| Status | Claim | Made | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | At least three non-traditional defense companies founded after 2015 individually surpass $500M in annual DoD obligations. | ||
| open | Aggregate 2027 datacenter capex across Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta exceeds $600B. | ||
| open | Frontier inference cost per million output tokens at the leading capability tier falls below $2. | ||
| open | At least two Fortune 100 companies publicly drop degree requirements for the majority of software engineering roles. | ||
| open | At least one company above 1,000 engineers publicly abandons algorithmic screening as a primary filter and says so on the record. |