Dated predictions and their resolution status
StatusClaimMadeResolves
openAt least three non-traditional defense companies founded after 2015 individually surpass $500M in annual DoD obligations.
openAggregate 2027 datacenter capex across Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta exceeds $600B.
openFrontier inference cost per million output tokens at the leading capability tier falls below $2.
openAt least two Fortune 100 companies publicly drop degree requirements for the majority of software engineering roles.
openAt least one company above 1,000 engineers publicly abandons algorithmic screening as a primary filter and says so on the record.

Search essays